What’s at stake in the US Presidential election?
In 2016 film director Michael Moore warned the world that Trump would defeat his opponent Hillary Clinton. And in fact, he won. This year, at the end of August, the American filmmaker shared on his Facebook page another dooming prophecy: "Are you mentally prepared to be outsmarted by Trump again?”.
As many say, the November 2020 election will be probably a critical point in history - not only for the USA but worldwide, considering the central place the United States today holds in the world stage. It will be a key political event in our lifetime: for the decades to come, we will be discussing what happened in America in 2020. The importance of this election goes beyond which party wins; American voters will also be faced with the question of whether the American democratic experiment, one of the boldest political innovations in human history, will survive.
We’ve heard too many sinister conspiracy theories recently, about who the US’ foreign and domestic enemies are, how faulty and fraudulent the voting system is, if the electoral college is a good representation of the people’s will, how newspapers and other media are perverting the public opinion. Any electoral victory, no matter what the party is, based on these terms, is no victory at all.
Trump vs. Biden - “a debate that was the political equivalent of a food fight”
Conventions are now closed, meaning that the American elections go live, while President Donald Trump, given a strong recovery in the polls, blows the fire of social and racial conflict by visiting Kenosha at the beginning of September, which has become one of the reference points of the protest after the wounding of African American Jacob Blake. A move to which Joe Biden promptly reacted, by visiting the city of Wisconsin and privately speaking with Blake's family.
Will the Americans once again trust the Commander in chief, or will they hold him responsible for the outbreak of the coronavirus, civil unrest and racial tensions?
After the most unusual election campaign in history, held during a pandemic, Donald Trump and his challenger Joe Biden finally met face to face last night giving life to a surreal first of three debates, that was characterized by tension, overlapping words and total confrontation over COVID, the economy and the Supreme Court.
The debate was held in Cleveland, Ohio, a state that Trump won by 8 points in 2016, in a setting resembling more a ring than a television studio. It is a battle, as expected, that CNN even describes as "pure chaos". The two candidates not only offend each other, they also interrupt the moderator, Fox journalist Chris Wallace, frequently.
WHAT WERE THE MAIN POINTS AT DISCUSSION?
The nomination of Amy Coney Barrett at the Supreme Court: Trump’s new Supreme Court nominee, a firm Catholic, may well be confirmed by the Senate, which means she will be able to apply some influence to the court on environmental regulation, civil rights and agency transparency.
Healthcare: The former vice president said Trump's agenda, including Barrett's nomination, plans to break down the Obama Affordable Care Act and that, if the law is overturned by the Supreme Court, 100 million people with pre-existing medical conditions would lose their health coverage. Trump disputed the numbers and continued to attack Biden, claiming that the latter's health plan would "extinguish" the private health care of 180 million people. During the heated discussion on health care, Trump said the Democratic Party "wants to go socialist," with Biden rejecting such claims. Trump added that he had a plan to replace the Affordable Care Act, but did not provide any details.
The handling of the Coronavirus emergency: Biden pointed out that over 200,000 US citizens have died, and about 40,000 people continue to get infected every day, blaming the President for the sad numbers. Trump, in turn, blamed China and contested the number of people infected in other countries. The president later claimed credit for closing borders at the start of the pandemic; the debate took a turn for the worse when Trump accused Biden of mishandling the swine flu. Biden for his part said he does not "trust" Trump about the upcoming vaccines. On the anti-COVID vaccine, Trump added that he had "spoken to companies" and that the vaccine could arrive "much earlier" than expected; the president reported speaking with Pfizer, also naming Moderna Inc and Johnson & Johnson.
Racial turmoil and the protests following the police killing of George Floyd: The domestic racial unrest in the US has drawn accusations of hypocrisy from all over the world. Biden condemned Trump's work on the issue of race and accused him of fostering the division of people. “This is a President who uses everything as a dog whistle to try to generate racist hatred”. Trump attacked the former vice president on his legislative resume: “You have treated the Black community about as bad as anybody in this country.” Trump said he is doing better with African Americans than any Republican has in a long time; the president went on to say that race-related protests held in Portland and other cities are run by "radical left Democrats." He denounced the alleged role of the Antifa in the violence linked to the recent protests, but refused to stigmatize white supremacist groups and addressed directly to the Proud Boys saying “stand back and stand by!” and added, “Somebody’s got to do something about antifa and the left.”
Tax Policy: Biden wants to get rid of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and has asked for aid to be extended to “people who need help”; corporate taxes would be brought back to 28% instead of the current 21%, Biden said. The former vice president launched his "Buy American" proposal to prioritize the country's production. Trump was critical of the previous Obama administration's actions following the Great Recession and pointed to the growth of stock markets as proof of his success.
The integrity of the election’s results: Trump reiterated his claims about the postal vote, saying millions of unsolicited ballot papers are sent across the country. Biden said Trump is simply afraid of counting the votes, and dismissed concerns about the ballot papers by saying that the military has always voted by mail since the end of the civil war.
Trump’s Federal Income Taxes report by the NY Times: Trump criticized the NYT report which claimed that in 2016 and 2017 the president would have paid $750 in federal annual income taxes; Trump claimed to have paid “millions of dollars" in taxes each year before being interrupted by Biden: “show us your tax return.”When asked again how much taxes he had paid in those years, Trump said "millions of dollars and you will see”. Pointing the finger at Biden, the incumbent president added: “he passed a tax law that gave us all these privileges.”
Why does this election matter to companies and startups?
There are key issues at stake in this election that will heavily impact how today’s businesses work, recruit and pay taxes. In a country where 20% of entrepreneurs are immigrants, immigration policies are of primary importance for the US’ innovation potential, entrepreneurial spirit, business growth; and to keep alive the notion of the American dream. If we consider the issue in the context of employment visas, a critical business concern of most startups, operating in a very competitive, yet shrinking, talent market means that to meet growing employment needs, startups cannot look solely at US-born talent.
The 2020 US elections point to another complicating factor in political risk for businesses: US international relations with key markets. China, for example, is where many large companies have their manufacturing operations. Furthermore, in the case of a real trade war, American companies that rely heavily on the Chinese market could be hit hard. “That push and pull of international relations is directly affecting our customers, and therefore us”, said Salsify’s co-founder & Chief Data Officer Jeremy Redburn in a recent interview, adding that he “hope(s) for a more stable environment, because that is what we need”.
In an age of uncertainty caused by trade tensions between the US and China, and Brexit, political and social stability in Portugal, together with its safety record, is seen as a competitive advantage in attracting more foreign investment. In 2018 Salsify itself opened a hub in Portugal to be able to expand the company’s operation in the EMEA area. Cloudflare did the same 1 year ago and couldn’t be happier.
The EU is a major world trading power. In terms of the total value of all goods and services produced (GDP), it is bigger than the US economy. However, it is also quite fragmented into different countries, cultures and languages. The expansion to a new country or even a continent can be a daunting task. At BRIDGE IN we help companies getting into the European single-market through Portugal, either by incorporating a local subsidiary and trade in the Eurozone or just by helping to find, hire and employ business development, customer support or tech teams.
ARE YOU WORRIED ABOUT THE FUTURE PAST NOVEMBER 3RD?
While we hope for the best, savvy business owners should prepare for the worst. Diversification is a well-known risk management strategy for limiting exposure. You should also diversify your startup bets and mitigate risks. Reducing exposure to a single talent pool is paramount. Opening a new location in the same country is like opening positions on the same asset type. You need to hedge your Talent Sourcing with a new Tech Hub abroad.
Book a Consulting Session to explore your options.
